With the rise in interest rates, bond yields have been on the rise; this will dent banks' treasury profits. Also, many retail borrowers may find it difficult to service their loans when the loan rates rise, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The 'mediation' by the United States from behind the scene on the diplomatic track appears to be once again working, which calls on both Delhi and Islamabad to show restraint and pull back from a military confrontation, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Its obsession for growth, chasing corporate clients and giving up its original mandate of meeting the needs of local trade and businesses. A quarter of its loan book has gone bad. That's an error of business strategy, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The RBI under former governor Shaktikanta Das resisted pressures to cut interest rates through 2024 as it kept its 'Arjuna's eye' trained on inflation, but the central bank under a new detail-oriented head will soon have to take a call if it can continue sacrificing growth. Das, a career bureaucrat who in 2016 oversaw Prime Minister Narendra Modi's highly disruptive demonetisation move, left a lasting legacy as he demitted office towards the end of 2024 after expertly navigating monetary policy for six years, the highlight of which was steering India's recovery through the pandemic.
In the April-June period, bond yields rose by 30 bps.
Instead of announcing new schemes, focus will be on those already announced and key sectors.
The Indian services sector activity fell to a six-month low in September, as new business inflows rose at the slowest rates since March, amid inflationary pressures and competitive conditions, a monthly survey said. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 54.3 in September, from 57.2 in August, highlighting the weakest rate of expansion since March. For the fourteenth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
The RBI was not party to the decision to demonetize 500 and 1,000-rupee notes, which was taken at the highest level of India's political leadership.
Government's reforms agenda in Parliament is in for trouble with its biggest ally Shiv Sena on Monday joining some Opposition parties in declaring resistance to a bill on raising FDI cap in insurance sector from 26 per cent 49 per cent.
The biggest challenge with public sector banks is the processing time, which is why starting early helps.
'If we want faster growth and want greater flow of credit towards the private sector, it's important to have many more of such large entities.'
On the cusp of launching its Rs 11,327 crore initial public offering (IPO) next week, food and grocery delivery major Swiggy believes quick commerce to be its future growth engine and anticipates that it will outpace its core food delivery business over the next five years. Currently, the quick commerce business of Swiggy - backed by Prosus and SoftBank - is 40 per cent of the size of its food delivery revenues.
'Success will require political skill, not just economic expertise'
Around 75 per cent, or 372 stocks, that are part of the BSE500 are trading at least 10 per cent below their all-time high levels, despite the index hitting a record high 20,515 points on the BSE in intra-day trade on Wednesday, surpassing its previous high of 20,390 touched in March 12. The index, which accounts for 93 per cent of BSE listed companies' market capitalisation, has gained 8 per cent from its recent low of 18,983, touched on April 19. In comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex gained 6 per cent over the same period, but is still nearly 4.5 per cent away from its all-time high of 52,517 that it hit on February 16.
India's credit and banking are neither too big nor too small.
Twenty years after India's insurance sector was opened up, unshackling the control of state-owned companies, as many as 50 private players have set up shop. Along with their foreign partners, private players have brought about a sea change in the product offering, distribution and underwriting processes, and services levels. Yet, India's insurance penetration needle has not moved much.
'The slide in growth has arisen primarily because we have an NBFC crisis on top of a banking crisis,' points out T T Ram Mohan.
The banking sector in India is reeling under Rs 8 lakh crore of non performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans, of which PSU banks alone account for over Rs 6 lakh crore.
Every banker loves the four-letter word Casa as it plays an important role in lowering the cost of deposits. Every bank wants to increase its Casa, as a higher portion of Casa in the overall deposit liability brings down its cost of money, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
A section of analysts feel now may not be a bad time to buy select PSBs.
'We see mid-and small-caps as a real pot of gold.' 'From a 10-15 years perspective, mid-and small-cap are likely to outperform the larger index, as they have done in the past.'
Bank of Baroda Q4 results: Key brokerages have raised their target prices on Bank of Baroda after the state-owned lender posted better-than-expected March quarter (Q4FY23) results. Analysts now see up to 29 per cent upside in the stock from a one-year perspective as they believe BoB is well-placed among the large public banks with nearly all key business metrics moving closer to the top-tier banks. Valuations, too, remain attractive despite steady strong quarterly performances.
This is the 22nd consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50-point mark.
The governance reforms, as an official put it, would bring in measures to track the performance of the executive-rank employees of the banks, intensively.
Brokers said a flurry of buying by investors in blue-chips mainly influenced the sentiment.
Sensex closed the day 416 points higher.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
Markets under pressure; IT financials grab spotlight.
The finance minister's meeting with chief executives and managing directors of banks ahead of the Union Budget assumes significance in view of the critical role the banking sector plays in boosting consumer demand across sectors.
Vodafone Idea's (Vi's) subscriber loss reduced to a seven-month low in March, and alongside the company added 1.1 million broadband users after two months of net loss -- two things analysts have noted as key trends that need to be monitored. While Vi has been losing customers for more than two and a half years now, the churn reduced to below a million after five straight months in March, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) data has shown. "Jio's softer than usual subscriber growth in March, and VIL's slowing subscriber market share loss are key trends to keep an eye on going forward," global investment banking and financial services major UBS said in an analyst note.
'The Reserve Bank's independence has remained a work in progress, an enduring challenge that the nation has been grappling with on an ongoing basis,' says RBI Deputy Governor Dr Viral Acharya.
'As our per capita income increases and various demographic segments emerge, the need for various kinds of protection and risk covers will become even more explicit.'
The report expects the inflation framework, fiscal consolidation, infrastructure spending, FDI focus and strong external affairs policies to continue.
Very gradual fiscal consolidation glide path with looser-than-expected fiscal policy; good quality spending mix and reasonable assumption on fiscal math; and focus on privatisation, asset monetisation and long-term funding for infrastructure investments, according to Morgan Stanley, are the three key themes from the Budget 2021.
'With nearly double the market share of our nearest competitor, we are shaping the digital transformation journey of close to 1,000 clients in India.'
Analysts attribute this fall to the recent moderation in energy (mainly crude oil) and commodity prices, lowering of input costs for companies in sectors such as FMCG, consumer durables, and automobiles, reports Krishna Kant.
The slowdown in private consumption in the economy is taking a toll on the growth of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). The net sales growth of listed FMCG companies hit a 14-quarter low of 2.5 per cent in October-December 2023 (Q3FY24). This is the lowest revenue growth for the industry since the June 2020 quarter, when the FMCG firms in the Business Standard sample had reported a 13.2 per cent Y-o-Y decline in combined net sales owing to the lockdown.
China's economy is in transition, with rising wage costs and massive overcapacity.
The choice clearly is between prompt corrective action and slow but sure destruction, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
